Level 1 — Basic Strategies | Nivonex Research

Strategy	SPY Large Cap	QQQ Tech	IWM Small Cap	GLD Gold	USO Oil	TLT Bonds	BTC Crypto
SMA Cross	+4.35 S:0.38	+11.73 S:0.64	−4.05 S:−0.1	+3.36 S:0.21	−6.96 S:−0.2	+1.27 S:0.13	+19.68 S:0.67
EMA Cross	−0.71	−1.19	−3.14	+2.13	+1.76	+1.19	+26.52
Triple EMA	−0.20	−2.30	−1.11	+2.81	+2.92	+1.51	+25.23
Price vs SMA200	+5.11	+7.76	−0.33	+2.56	−8.33	−4.80	+21.96
Price vs EMA50	−1.15	−1.73	−2.77	+1.46	−2.53	−3.84	+25.98
RSI Reversal	+0.99	−1.02	+1.22	−3.04	−11.78	−4.13	−39.28
RSI Trend	−2.32	−3.11	−1.57	−0.23	−0.41	−5.13	+33.90
MACD Cross	−3.68	−4.27	−1.15	−2.28	−7.13	−5.25	+26.41
Stochastic	−0.53	−3.80	−4.67	−5.36	−11.35	−6.27	−17.69
ATR Breakout	−5.34	−11.56	−3.16	−4.27	+7.26	−1.50	+21.03
Donchian Channel	−0.50	+1.35	−4.51	−0.61	+5.45	−1.35	+24.23
Keltner Channel	−3.81	−0.77	−7.21	+3.32	+4.89	−1.85	+24.34
BB Mean Reversion	+5.72	+1.53	+1.86	−3.66	−15.33	−4.05	−35.15
BB Breakout	−10.48	−8.25	−7.40	−0.05	+1.57	+1.19	+11.34

🔬 Key Observations

🟢 Equity trend strategies are weak

On SPY, only 3 of 15 strategies produce positive CAGR. SMA Cross (4.35%), Price vs SMA200 (5.11%), and BB Mean Reversion (5.72%) barely beat risk-free rate. Equities in a bull market are hard to beat with simple timing.

🟢 Crypto is a trend-following paradise

BTC shows positive CAGR for 12 of 15 strategies. The strongest: RSI Trend (33.9%), EMA Cross (26.5%), Triple EMA (25.2%). Mean-reversion fails catastrophically on crypto (−39% for RSI Reversal, −35% for BB Mean Rev).

🟢 Oil is uniquely responsive to breakout strategies

USO is the only asset where ATR Breakout (7.26%) and Donchian (5.45%) outperform trend-following. Commodities have distinct statistical properties that reward different approaches.

🔴 Most simple strategies lose money on small caps

IWM (Russell 2000) shows only 1 strategy outperforming (BB Mean Rev at 1.86%). Small caps are too noisy for basic trend and momentum signals.

🔴 MACD Cross is surprisingly bad

Despite being one of the most popular indicators, MACD Cross loses on 6 of 7 assets. Only on BTC does it work (+26.41%). The dual-smoothing destroys responsiveness.

🚀 Next: Level 2 — Combined Strategies (21-40)

We'll take the best performing individual indicators from Level 1 and combine them: EMA + RSI, Bollinger + RSI, VWAP + volume filters, and multi-condition trend confirmation. Preliminary data suggests combinations dramatically outperform single-signal approaches.